A gambling impact study published by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in August suggests that video gambling terminals (VGTs) increase crime in their proximity by 6% to 7%. The study connects the rise of crime in Illinois since the state expanded VGTs in 2012.
Because of the ongoing debate over video gambling terminals in Pennsylvania, the Illinois gambling impact study could shape the debate. The anti-gambling political action committee, Pennsylvanians For Responsible Government, argues that VGTs would make Pennsylvania a “Land of 12,000 Casinos”, with gaming machines in laundrymats and nursing homes.
Pennsylvanians For Responsible Government is funded by Bethlehem Sands Resort and Casino, which is owned by Sheldon Adelson’s Las Vegas Sands Corporation. New research which make VGTs appear to be a danger to communities is certain to be used by opponents of expanded gambling in Pennsylvania, so it is worth the time to look at the study’s methods and conclusions.
“Can’t Stop the One-Armed Bandits”
The name of the 47-page study is “Can’t Stop the One-Armed Bandits: The Effects of Access to Gambling on Crime“. Two researchers from Urbana-Champaign, Nicholas L. Bottan and Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri, teamed with Andres Ham of the Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia to conduct the research.
The study’s abstract noted that Illinois left the decision to legalize VGTs to local municipalities. Since 2012, many Illinois cities and towns have legalized VGTs, while others have not. Bottan, Sarmiento-Barbieri, and Ham wrote that the fragmented gaming market provides fertile ground for a study.
Comparison Between Illinois Cities
“Can’t Stop the One-Armed Bandits” said its research method was to compare “crime in areas that are closer to video gambling establishments with those that are further away along with the timing of video gambling adoption.”
Thus, a comparison in crime rates was made between those cities and neighborhoods which installed VGT machines and those which chose not to install VGTs. The study used a “difference-in-differences strategy“, which means it compares a treatment group and a control group in a natural experiment.
In the end, the researchers claim they found “(i) access to gambling increases violent and property crimes; (ii) these are new crimes rather than displaced incidents; and (iii) the effects seem to be persistent in time.”
Increase in Violent and Property Crimes
In short, the study suggests that gambling machines increases both violent crimes and property crimes. The study also suggested that the crimes reported were “new crimes“, and not simply displaced from somewhere else. Finally, it showed the increase in crime rate to be persistent over time.
Bottan, Sarmiento-Barbieri, and Ham wrote: “On average, being near at least one video gambling establishment is associated with a 7.5% and 6.7% increase in violent and property crime.”
As gaming moved three census blocks away from the VGT location, the increased level of violent and property crimes decreased to zero.
Did VGTs Cause Spike in Illinois Crime Rates?
The spike in violent crime in Chicago is well known over the past few years. The Chicago Tribune reported that crime rates first rose in late-night clubs and commercial areas. For a time being, residential areas were not nearly as affected by the rise in violent crime rates.
An argument could be made that the areas likeliest to have VGTs from 2012 to 2016 are those which were likelier to have a spike in violent crime rates. Did VGTs cause the spike in violent and property crimes, or did the VGTs go into businesses which were in the direct path of violent crimes? Most businesses are within a few blocks of residential areas, so did the drop in crime 3 blocks away from VGT establishments reflect the drop in crime in residential areas, or did it mean the VGTs caused an increase in crime near them?
While the researchers may have accounted for such factors, other respected studies have shown no correlation between gambling and crime rates. Spectrum Gaming did a 2016 study of the crime rates in Plainville, Massachusetts after the placement of gaming machines in the Plainridge Racecourse. That study showed no correlation between crime rates and those gambling machines.
Pennsylvania Gambling Hearings
The study comes just weeks prior to a new round of hearings in the Pennsylvania legislature to discuss an expansion of gambling. The Pennsyvlania omnibus gambling bill includes several proposed types of gaming, including online poker, online casinos, daily fantasy sports, airport terminal betting, satellite casinos, and video gambling terminals.
The VGTs are the most controversial, because the House Bill contains VGTs, while the Senate Bill does not. Also, the land-based casino industry views VGTs as a dangerous competitor, while the Tavern Association sees them as a potential godsend. When the hearings begin, both sides will call experts. Geoff Freeman of the Poker Players Alliance is likely to testify for the pro-gambling side, while longtime anti-gambling activists like John Kindt will testify on the other side.
